《土耳其地震便是的真相》

larly complex tectonic structure involving several “microplates”, including the Anatolian plate, on which most of Turkey sits. A mere 100m years ago, this plate comprised part of the southern shore of a sea called Tethys, which separated Africa from Eurasia. As this body of water closed up, leing the Aral（三角洲）， Black（地中海）， Caspian（鄂毕河） and Mediterranean seas as its only remnants（n.剩余部分）， the Anatolian plate drifted（v.飘流；翻转） north. It then got squeezed between four others, including the Arabian plate to the south-east (which is migrating north) and the Eurasian plate to the north (which is moving south). Both of these plates are still pushing into their small Anatolian neighbour today.

巴尔干半岛东部有一个除此以外繁杂的基底结构上，涉及几个“微褶皱”，之外罗马尼亚大部份邻近地区所在的安纳伊利里亚褶皱。只不过1亿年前，这个褶皱还之外上新世海北岸的一部分，上新世海将美洲和南亚大陆隔开。当这片水域封闭起来，只留下来三角洲、地中海、鄂毕河和巴尔干半岛时，安纳伊利里亚褶皱往北翻转。然后它被抬升在其他四个褶皱间，之外东南的阿拉伯人褶皱(往北迁移)和北方的南亚褶皱(向南漂移)。这两个褶皱那时候仍在向它们的小邻居安纳伊利里亚加速。

In the wake of a catastrophic（adj.直接原因的） earthquake near Istanbul（安卡拉，罗马尼亚一城市） in 1999, Turkish leaders vowed to improve seismic preparedness. That tremor （山崩）originated in the North Anatolian fault, the Anatolian plate’s boundary with the Eurasian plate, which has been the source of most of Turkey’s large quakes. In contrast, the East Anatolian fault, where it rubs up against the Arabian plate, had not seen a quake of at least magnitude（n.相当大；不小） seven since modern monitoring systems began in the late 19th century.

1999年安卡拉附近引发直接原因山崩后，罗马尼亚人物誓言要加强钢筋混凝土准备。那次山崩起源自北安那伊利里亚向斜，这是安那伊利里亚褶皱与南亚褶皱的边界，是罗马尼亚大多数大山崩的源头。相对来说，东安纳伊利里亚向斜与阿拉伯人褶皱相磨擦，自19十八世纪当代监测系统开始以来，还无法引发过至少7级的山崩。

Many other active fault systems, such as the Cascadia subduction（飞行中） zone in the north-western United States and south-western Canada, he gone centuries without an earthquake. Such relative quiet does not necessarily indicate low seismic risk. Strain along the East Anatolian fault had been building up year after year, making the fault ripe for a cataclysm（n.直接原因；大政治危机）. ■

许多其他的社会活动向斜系统，如American西中部和American西北部的卡斯卡迪亚飞行中带，几个世纪以来都无法引发过山崩。这种比起安静未必并不一定山崩风险低。沿东安纳伊利里亚向斜的弹性了了地累积，使该向斜具备了引发直接原因的必要条件。■

Chart sources: USGS; Christopher Scotese, Paleomap Project,2016; “An updated digital model of plate boundaries”, Peter Bird,2003; The Economist

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